One of the vital anticipated showdowns of the season is on the docket this week, as UConn and USC face off in a rematch of the 2024 Elite Eight in Hartford, Conn. Each groups boast top-10 offenses and defenses, per Her Hoop Stats, which typically signifies a nationwide title contender.
Throughout the preseason, this sport was billed as a battle between the 2 projected favorites for nationwide Participant of the Yr: Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins. Nevertheless, one other participant has usurped the 2 in that dialog, the identical one who helped ship the Huskies and the Trojans their lone losses of the season. Each Bueckers and Watkins had been outplayed by Hannah Hidalgo of their matchups towards Notre Dame, as Hidalgo has earned pole place within the NPOY race.
GO DEEPER
Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo has UConn’s quantity (once more)
It’s far too early within the season to reach at any conclusions, however to have three gamers placing collectively such stable circumstances is a stark distinction to how the race has borne out over the past two seasons. With Lauren Betts and Madison Booker additionally main nationwide title hopefuls (UCLA and Texas have top-10 offenses and defenses, too), Hidalgo may not even be the favourite for for much longer. The relative parity amongst groups atop the rankings additionally extends to the perfect gamers within the nation.
That provides much more intrigue to a marquee matchup between UConn and USC. Along with getting a pre-tournament check, every workforce’s star may use a giant efficiency to make up floor on Hidalgo.
Dropped out: Iowa (21)
Virtually well-known: Iowa, Utah, Vanderbilt
Three rising groups
Southern California
Whereas Kiki Iriafen adjusts to her offensive position at USC, her frontcourt companion Rayah Marshall has been increasing her expertise. Marshall all the time has been a dominant defensive presence, and that hasn’t modified as a senior. Her block share is within the 99th percentile nationally, and he or she deters much more photographs. Opponents are taking pictures a preposterous 23.9 p.c with Marshall as the first defender, as she will defend the put up and canopy floor on the perimeter. USC’s protection is 16.7 factors per 100 possessions higher with Marshall on the court docket.
However Marshall has change into extra versatile offensively this season. Enjoying subsequent to Iriafen, who excels close to the basket, has pressured Marshall to begin possessions on the perimeter. Marshall isn’t precisely a menace to shoot from lengthy distance, as she’s made two area targets exterior of the paint all season (although a type of did come towards Elon on Sunday). Nevertheless, her drive sport has improved, and that allows her to get into the lane, collapse the protection and dump the ball off to Iriafen. Take a look at how Marshall creates the simple search for Iriafen on these two possessions, the second coming after a trademark block on the opposite finish.
As a middle, she has the third-most assists for USC, behind solely Watkins and Talia von Oelhoffen. Marshall had a below-average assist-to-turnover ratio her first two seasons at USC and a below-average assists price final 12 months, however she has now change into one of the vital environment friendly frontcourt passers. The Trojans want that capacity from Marshall to create area for Iriafen to work. If these two can amplify one another, that raises USC’s offensive ceiling.
Kentucky
Georgia Amoore’s 3-point taking pictures has fallen off of a cliff this season, because the profession 35.3 p.c shooter is making 1 / 4 of her makes an attempt from past the arc. Because the alpha and omega of Kentucky’s offense, Amoore must be a person scoring menace for the Wildcats to win video games towards good opponents. Towards North Carolina two weeks in the past, Amoore missed all 5 of her 3-point makes an attempt, and Kentucky was routed by 19 factors.
However it seems Amoore is rediscovering her groove. Within the Wildcats’ two wins final week, the fifth-year guard shot 5 of 14 from deep, a big enchancment from her horrific begin to the 12 months, and he or she was notably artful within the midrange towards Purdue, as Kentucky gained its first true street sport of 2024-25. The Wildcats ran Amoore off the ball, utilizing her because the screener in some inverted pick-and-rolls; she was capable of flip and face towards a much bigger defender and use her pace to mud them on the way in which to the ring.
been enjoyable to look at Kentucky exercise how they wish to assault zones this season
Actually good offensive workforce, however has gotten gummed up by zone a bit to begin the 12 months
Beloved the counter yesterday towards Purdue. Take the ball out of Amoore’s fingers, and get her to the nail pic.twitter.com/r8mMxHprMM
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) December 15, 2024
Kentucky obtained off to a sluggish begin towards the Boilermakers, scoring 2 factors within the first seven-plus minutes. Amoore then scored 13 factors within the subsequent 10 minutes to flip the early deficit right into a 3-point lead. Amoore has already been an impressive ground common and playmaker for the Wildcats, averaging a career-best 7.2 assists per sport. Kentucky may make some noise within the SEC if she provides the taking pictures.
Georgia Tech
The final unbeaten workforce within the ACC is Georgia Tech, an end result nobody would have predicted coming into the season. The Yellow Jackets have high quality wins over South Dakota State, Oregon and now on the street towards North Carolina, once they had been an absolute buzzsaw within the first half.
Georgia Tech works laborious to win the possession battle. The Yellow Jackets assault the offensive glass and don’t flip the ball over, which ends up in 12.8 extra shot makes an attempt per sport than their opponents. With that margin, they wouldn’t even should shoot all that effectively to win, however their efficient field-goal share ranks within the 86th percentile nationally — thus the 11-0 report, which is the perfect begin in program historical past. In addition they don’t rely an excessive amount of on any particular person gamers; seven Yellow Jackets common not less than 20 minutes per sport however none exceeds 30, and so they’re fourth amongst energy convention groups in bench factors behind South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee.
What stood out of their win towards the Tar Heels was that nothing appeared anomalous. They put plenty of strain on the rim within the half court docket and in transition, with Tonie Morgan and Zoesha Smith being good at scoring within the paint. Dani Carnegie is nearly as good as any freshman within the ACC and is threatening a 50/40/90 taking pictures season whereas main the workforce in scoring. They’re lively on protection and pace up opponents, even when they don’t pressure turnovers at an elite price. They usually play laborious, which is the place the depth turns out to be useful. After 11 video games, it’s time to wipe away these preseason tasks. Georgia Tech is now not a fluke and much better than the Tenth-best workforce on this convention.
Two falling groups
Texas
That is nitpicking for the Longhorns after they gained two video games by a mixed 69 factors this week, together with on the street towards Richmond, which is twenty fifth within the NET. However one thing about Texas’ offense is nagging at me.
Madison Booker is the one constant scoring menace, and her offense is reliant on some troublesome photographs, which, to her credit score, she makes at a excessive clip. However the Longhorns are just a little isolation-heavy and don’t take many 3-pointers, which limits their upside towards the perfect groups. Ideally, Aaliyah Moore or Laila Phelia can be that secondary offensive pressure behind Booker, however neither has popped this season. It doesn’t assist that the paint is supremely crowded, much more so now that Rori Harmon — who isn’t considered a shooter — has changed Shaylee Gonzales within the beginning lineup.
Towards the Spiders, Texas pressured 24 turnovers and took 20 extra area targets however gained by solely 10. It resembled its season-ending loss to NC State in 2023-24, when the Longhorns additionally had a plus-20 area purpose benefit, however misplaced by 10. Although superior stats say Texas is excelling on offense, the method appears too difficult, and it’s one thing to regulate because the SEC slate begins.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes hold placing on a present, however they want to determine the way to shut out video games. Every week in the past, they unraveled within the fourth quarter towards Tennessee, surrendering a 14-1 run of their first lack of the season. Sunday towards Michigan State, Iowa blew a 9-point lead and allowed a 14-0 fourth-quarter run. These two video games did sandwich a Hawkeyes comeback towards Iowa State, however that ending was extra concerning the Cyclones’ struggles than Iowa.
The turnovers are getting uncontrolled for the Hawkeyes, who’re giving the ball away on 25 p.c of possessions within the clutch. This has come regardless of Iowa’s usually going small down the stretch and taking part in with extra ballhandlers. As an alternative, the Hawkeyes have struggled to regulate possession and compromised their protection within the course of, because the lineups with Hannah Stuelke on the 5 don’t get sufficient stops. A few of the giveaways are simply comical, resembling an errant cross that landed in coach Jan Jensen’s fingers within the ultimate interval towards Michigan State.
Iowa has some youthful gamers this season, however the turnovers are coming from their veterans — Lucy Olsen had seven towards the Spartans, and fellow senior Kylie Feuerbach had 5. Stuelke and senior Addison O’Grady are combining to common 4.9 turnovers from the frontcourt spots. With the Hawkeyes’ fast-paced fashion, some errors are anticipated, however this stage of carelessness can not proceed within the Large Ten.
(Picture of Rayah Marshall: Meg Oliphant / Getty Pictures)
