Earlier than the brand new Congress can do something — together with certifying Donald J. Trump because the winner of the 2024 presidential election — the Home might want to elect its speaker in a vote scheduled for Friday.
For many years, that was largely a formality devoid of any drama. However two years in the past, a Republican revolt extended the method for 4 agonizing days and 15 contentious votes, laying naked the social gathering’s divisions and setting the stage for a combative session.
Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana in November received unanimous help from Home Republicans for one more time period as speaker, and he has Mr. Trump’s endorsement. However he’s going through resistance from hard-right members of his social gathering, and given his razor-thin majority, which might go away him room for just one defection, his re-election is not any certainty.
Mr. Johnson acknowledged on “Fox & Buddies” on Thursday that he might “solely afford to lose one or two” Republican votes on Friday if he needed to win the gavel.
No Republican has emerged to problem Mr. Johnson, and the G.O.P. is going through overwhelming strain to get the method over with shortly this yr in order that Congress can certify Mr. Trump’s election as scheduled on Monday.
However at the very least one Republican has already mentioned he is not going to again Mr. Johnson, with others expressing considerations about his management. If Mr. Johnson fails to cobble collectively a majority, the Home might face a impasse much like the one which took maintain in 2023, which might imply a number of votes earlier than lawmakers lastly elect a speaker.
Right here’s the way it works.
Johnson wants a majority to be elected.
Selecting a brand new speaker is the primary order of enterprise within the Home after the brand new Congress convenes. It occurs even earlier than newly elected representatives are sworn in, and have to be resolved earlier than the rest is addressed.
Round midday, lawmakers congregate on the Home flooring, and leaders from every social gathering nominate their candidates. Republicans are anticipated to call Mr. Johnson, and Democrats will put ahead their chief, Consultant Hakeem Jeffries of New York.
The Home clerk then proceeds to an alphabetical roll-call vote through which every lawmaker replies with a reputation. That may very well be Mr. Johnson, Mr. Jeffries or — if lawmakers want to lodge a protest vote — any title of their selecting, together with somebody who isn’t a member of Congress.
The edge for election is a majority of these current and voting — 218 if the total complement of 435 members of the Home participates. However vacancies and absences might complicate the mathematics.
With the resignation of former Consultant Matt Gaetz of Florida, Republicans will maintain a complete of 219 seats, whereas Democrats maintain 215. Meaning Mr. Johnson can afford to lose just one Republican vote if all members are current and voting.
Mr. Johnson might nonetheless win the speakership even when he doesn’t have the help of a majority. He might persuade lawmakers who oppose him to vote “current” relatively than naming one other individual, or to easily “take a stroll” and miss the vote totally.
That isn’t an unusual prevalence. Two years in the past, Kevin McCarthy received the gavel on the fifteenth poll with solely 216 votes. John Boehner was elected as speaker with 216 votes in 2015, as was Nancy Pelosi in 2021.
If he falls brief, the deadlocked Home should preserve voting.
If Mr. Johnson can’t win sufficient votes on the primary poll, he’ll most probably haggle with the holdouts and make concessions in trade for his or her help. Mr. McCarthy hobbled his personal speakership this manner by caving to ultraconservatives who insisted on holding key positions that might give them sway over what payments may very well be introduced up — and a provision that allowed a single member to make a movement to depose him.
A challenger might emerge, though no different Republican has formally introduced a bid for the speakership. One title that has repeatedly emerged is Consultant Jim Jordan of Ohio, a co-founder and former chair of the far-right Home Freedom Caucus. He misplaced a bid for speaker in October 2023, after Mr. McCarthy’s ouster, and Mr. Johnson received the submit as a substitute.
No matter occurs, the Home should proceed voting time and again till anyone can win a majority.
One defector has already emerged; extra might comply with.
No less than one Republican, Consultant Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has pledged to vote towards Mr. Johnson regardless of Mr. Trump’s endorsement.
One other detractor, Consultant Victoria Spartz of Indiana, was additionally unmoved by the president-elect’s endorsement and indicated that her vote will rely upon whether or not Mr. Johnson can fulfill her collection of calls for, which features a crackdown on authorities spending.
A number of Republicans on the far proper have refused to say whether or not they’ll help Mr. Johnson, together with Representatives Andy Harris of Maryland, the chairman of the Home Freedom Caucus, and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, its former chief.
If no speaker is chosen, Trump’s certification may very well be delayed.
Mr. Trump has an bold legislative agenda, and Republican congressional leaders have made it clear they wish to transfer shortly to start engaged on it. However with out a speaker, they’d be unable to think about any payments and even swear in any members. The Home would primarily be rendered a ineffective entity, because it was in early 2023, till the election is settled.
If there is no such thing as a speaker in place by Monday, there would even be penalties for Mr. Trump himself. With out a functioning Home, Congress couldn’t meet for the constitutionally mandated joint session on Jan. 6 to certify the outcomes of the 2024 presidential election. Mr. Johnson has been reminding Republicans of that reality early and sometimes.
