Novak Djokovic’s results against Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz – a small part of a big problem

Nearly 20 years after the final time it occurred, Novak Djokovic finds himself occupying an area in males’s tennis with which he’s all too acquainted. He’s, by a distance, the third-best participant on this planet.

In the summertime of 2007, quickly after he turned 20, Djokovic made the semifinals of the French Open and Wimbledon, earlier than reaching the ultimate on the U.S. Open. He was No. 3 on this planet for all of that July, dropped to No. 4 for per week within the August, after which stayed at No. 3 till… Might. Of 2009.

In his approach had been Rafael Nadal, who beat him in these French Open and Wimbledon semis, and Roger Federer, who noticed him off in straight units in New York. Apart from his 2008 Australian Open title, losses to Nadal and Federer outlined Djokovic’s profession from that summer season till 2011. Each defeated him a pair extra instances every within the closing levels of majors between 2008 and 2010, with Djokovic posting two wins of his personal towards them at these occasions.

Now, because the 2024 season attracts to an in depth, Djokovic has Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in entrance of him.

On Sunday, Sinner beat Djokovic in straight units within the ultimate of the Shanghai Masters — a event Djokovic has gained 4 instances, greater than some other participant, and the place he has a 39-6 file. Sinner has now crushed him twice this 12 months, 3 times in a row, and in 4 of their previous 5 ATP conferences; in that point, Djokovic has additionally misplaced consecutive Wimbledon finals to Alcaraz. It makes Sinner solely the sixth participant to win three ATP-level matches in a row towards Djokovic, in response to Opta:

Djokovic did beat Alcaraz 7-6(3), 7-6(2) to win Olympic gold in August, however in his 5 matches towards the highest two this 12 months, he has gained simply three units. Two of these had been in that Olympic ultimate, the opposite got here in his in any other case simple four-set loss to Sinner on the Australian Open.

Sinner and Alcaraz have additionally shared this 12 months’s 4 Grand Slams between them, leaving him with out a main in a calendar 12 months for under the second time since 2010.

Djokovic reiterated on Sunday that Grand Slam titles are what inspire him to maintain going at age 37, having gained every thing there may be to win within the sport. “Proper now, it’s actually about Slams and about nonetheless seeing how far I can push the bar for myself,” he mentioned in a information convention.

The Serbian wants yet another main to maneuver away from Margaret Court docket’s file of 24 — 9 of which she gained earlier than tennis turned skilled — which he equalled by profitable the U.S. Open final 12 months. For the remainder of 2024, and into 2025, he should stability sustaining his degree and health for these 4 majors with the data that, with out rating factors accrued in different occasions, his conferences with Sinner and Alcaraz at these majors will occur in earlier and earlier rounds.

Djokovic and Alcaraz have performed two definitive Wimbledon finals in two years (Charlotte Wilson / Offside through Getty Photographs)

Djokovic’s semifinal loss to Sinner was his first defeat on the Australian Open — the place he’s a 10-time champion — in six years. For less than the second time in his Grand Slam profession, Djokovic didn’t earn a break level and his 17.2 % of factors gained on first-serve return was his third-worst tally of 2024.

In Shanghai on Sunday, maybe the best returner within the historical past of the game had comparable struggles, this time profitable simply 34.6 per cent of second-serve return factors — once more his third-worst exhibiting of 2024. And whereas most opponents yield to Djokovic’s higher solidity within the essential moments, Sinner didn’t. It was Djokovic, not Sinner, who coughed up a decisive error within the essential first-set tiebreak.

Towards Alcaraz at Wimbledon, an admittedly not-fully-fit Djokovic once more returned poorly. He gained 16.1 % of first-serve return factors, his second-lowest whole of the 12 months, and mentioned after the match that he had by no means seen the younger Spaniard serve so nicely.

Djokovic additionally had a dreadful day serving. He gained 40 % of factors behind his second serve, his second-lowest determine of 2024 and approach down on his common for the 12 months of 55.9 %. The 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 (4) scoreline that day arguably flattered the crushed finalist, with Alcaraz obliterating Djokovic’s serve at 4-4 within the third set after largely coasting by the 4 earlier service video games performed. To beat Alcaraz within the Olympic ultimate, Djokovic performed his greatest match of the 12 months within the event that mattered most to him, elevating his degree within the two tiebreaks, particularly the second. Alcaraz, who transformed zero of eight break factors within the match, dipped in each tiebreaks and on these break factors.

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An issue for Djokovic is that Sinner and Alcaraz are acting at such a degree that there’s little he can do in the way in which of getting ready for them with match follow that doesn’t contain enjoying significant matches towards them. His comparatively sparse schedule has allowed him to take care of his health whereas reliably easing into majors by the primary week, getting himself match-ready by profitable within the early rounds. He did it at this 12 months’s French Open, falling solely to the medial meniscus tear from which he recovered to succeed in the Wimbledon ultimate. He did it on the U.S. Open, too, earlier than assembly an impressed Alexei Popyrin and failing to carry his degree to satisfy that problem.

Djokovic has performed 12 tournaments this 12 months, in comparison with 14 for Sinner and 16 for Alcaraz (counting final month’s Davis Cup qualifiers as one occasion relatively than two separate ties). Djokovic will most likely finish the 12 months with 14 occasions, the identical as in 2023 and two greater than a 12 months earlier when he missed the Australian swing due to his Covid-19 vaccination standing. Djokovic performed 13 occasions the 12 months earlier than that.

This very constant strategy has usually led to constantly good outcomes, but it surely’s his world rating and his factors accrued from constantly profitable titles which have allowed him to do that with out risking going through the perfect gamers earlier than the ultimate levels of occasions.

Sinner’s defeat of Djokovic in Melbourne proved a seminal second in 2024 (Daniel Pockett / Getty Photographs)

That could be about to vary.

Djokovic has accrued 3,910 rating factors up to now in 2024, profitable only one occasion and 0 ATP titles — his lowest tally since 2005. That places him at No. 6 within the ‘Race to Turin,’ the Italian metropolis the place the season-ending Tour Finals are held. He’s at present No. 4 within the ATP world rankings, behind Alexander Zverev, who’s forward of Djokovic in factors however not on-court high quality. Djokovic is defending 1,000 of these factors on the Paris Masters, which begins October 28, the place he’s the reigning champion. He’s not anticipated to play any additional occasions in 2024.

His outcomes have additionally declined. He has gained 80 % of his matches in 2024 (37-9), down from 89 % (56-7) final 12 months. It’s his lowest win proportion for a calendar 12 months since 2010, by which he gained 77 % of matches — the ultimate season earlier than Djokovic donned his superhero cape and went stratospheric. His 2011, by which he gained a staggering 92 % (70-6) of matches, was among the best years for a person in males’s tennis historical past.

It feels unlikely that, at 37, Djokovic will wish to tweak his quantity of tournaments to attempt to be extra match-tight for the majors, however with out rating factors, his rating will drop. If his rating drops, his seeding for Grand Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments will drop. If his seedings for Grand Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments drop, he will likely be assembly Alcaraz or Sinner earlier and earlier within the occasions he most needs to win.

Even a seeding of 5 to eight on the Australian Open would at present imply a doable quarterfinal towards one or the opposite, and he’d solely should drop one place from his present rating of fourth to be going through that situation.

Djokovic was phlegmatic about this newest defeat to Sinner on the weekend, saying: “So long as I carry out the way in which I carried out this week, and I feel I can go toe-to-toe with the massive guys. So long as that’s the case, I assume I’ll nonetheless really feel the necessity to carry on competing, and motivation to be on the market, and let’s see how lengthy that’s going to final for.”

Whereas the prospect to reel in Sinner and Alcaraz — who had been aged 5 and 4 respectively when Djokovic first grew to become the world No. 3 — must be loads of motivation, if losses to them turn into persistent, that may shortly turn into dispiriting. A lot has been revamped the previous week of the retirement of Rafael Nadal and what which means for Djokovic because the final one of many sport’s Huge Three standing, with Federer having hung up his racket in 2022.

After listening to the Nadal information, Djokovic mentioned in an on-court interview in Shanghai, “I nonetheless get pleasure from competing, however a part of me left with them, an enormous a part of me.”

Djokovic will defend 1,000 rating factors when the Paris Masters begins in late October (Zhang Lintao / Getty Photographs)

It’s really the third member of the group whose expertise is perhaps extra pertinent.

Between Wimbledon in 2012 and the Australian Open in 2017, Federer didn’t win a Grand Slam title. For a lot of that interval, he discovered himself in an analogous place to the place Djokovic is now — the world’s third-best participant however with a pair of rivals a degree above. A type of rivals was Djokovic, who beat Federer in three Grand Slam finals between Wimbledon in 2014 and the U.S. Open the next 12 months. Nadal, in the meantime, beat him within the 2014 Australian Open semifinal. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka had been different complicating components throughout these years.

Federer, who was in Shanghai for Sunday’s ultimate, may supply Djokovic some recommendation on hanging in when youthful rivals emerge — particularly as he needed to cope with the Huge One changing into the Huge Two after which the Huge Three within the mid-to-late 2000s.

There have been no indications that Djokovic is but desirous about the top.

“I don’t know what the long run brings, I’ll simply attempt to float to see how I really feel in a given second,” he mentioned on Sunday. “I nonetheless plan to compete and play subsequent season and, yeah, let’s see how far I’m going.”

Djokovic dismantled one duopoly to kickstart his profession.

As he approaches his ultimate act, he should repeat the trick to lengthen it.

(Prime picture: Clive Brunskill / Getty Photographs)