Mexican voters have been awaiting on Sunday the outcomes of an election that was groundbreaking on a number of fronts: It was set to be the biggest race within the nation’s historical past, it has been among the many most violent in current reminiscence, and it’ll doubtless put a lady into the presidency for the primary time ever.
The 2 foremost contenders, who’ve largely break up the voters between them, in accordance with polls, are girls. The front-runner is Claudia Sheinbaum, a local weather scientist representing the ruling celebration and its allies. Her closest competitor is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman on a ticket that features a assortment of opposition events.
Ms. Sheinbaum had a double-digit lead within the polls for months, however the opposition argued that these numbers underestimated the true help for Ms. Gálvez. In an interview, she mentioned that “there may be an anti-system vote,” and that if Mexicans turned out in pressure on Sunday, “we are going to win.”
“She’s within the mind-set the place she’s forward by 30 factors,” Ms. Gálvez mentioned of Ms. Sheinbaum. “However she’s going to have the shock of her life.”
The competition showcases the immense strides in Mexico’s politics made in recent times by girls, who weren’t even allowed to vote within the nation till 1953. Each the highest candidates include appreciable expertise: Ms. Gálvez was a senator, and Ms. Sheinbaum ruled the capital, one of many largest cities within the hemisphere.
“For the primary time in 200 years of the republic, we ladies will arrive on the highest distinction our folks may give us: the presidency of Mexico,” Ms. Sheinbaum mentioned in a current speech.
Almost 99 million voters have been anticipated to solid their ballots for greater than 20,000 native, state and congressional posts, in addition to the presidency — the biggest turnout and seats up for grabs in Mexico’s historical past.
But a lot of the race has targeted on a determine who was not on the poll however who nonetheless loomed massive: the highly effective present president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Mr. López Obrador has been a fixture of Mexican politics for many years, operating for president in all three of the earlier elections earlier than lastly successful in a landslide in 2018.
Whereas broadly widespread, Mr. López Obrador has been a polarizing determine, eliciting adulation from die-hard followers and vitriol from critics. His administration doubled the minimal wage and used money switch packages to assist convey thousands and thousands out of poverty. The administration additionally empowered the navy and pursued measures that many warned would weaken democratic establishments.
Mr. López Obrador’s dominance upended institution politics, prompting three events — from the precise, middle and left — to kind an uneasy union that backed Ms. Gálvez.
Ms. Sheinbaum appealed to voters primarily by promising to proceed Mr. López Obrador’s legacy. Ms. Gálvez solid herself instead for these sad together with his management, vowing to reverse lots of Mr. López Obrador’s insurance policies.
“The way in which this election has performed out is a testomony to the affect López Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” mentioned Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. “He’s the middle round which political identities and political positions are outlined.”
On Sunday in Tepetitán, a small city in Tabasco State, referred to as the birthplace of Mr. López Obrador and as a bastion of his supporters, two voters emerged from their polling station with a way of optimism. Each Teutila Gallego Salvador, 71, and Gloria Maria Rodríguez, 78, had solid ballots for Ms. Sheinbaum.
“We love her — we would like her to work like Obrador,” Ms. Rodríguez mentioned. “We wish a president like Obrador.”
Within the capital, Carlos Ortiz, 57, rolled into the road in his wheelchair after casting his vote. A municipal official, Mr. Ortiz voted in opposition to the ruling celebration.
“I need every little thing to vary, I don’t need a nation on hearth anymore,” he mentioned, recalling the handfuls of native candidates who have been killed in current months. “The president is totally insane. He has no thought what he’s doing.”
That’s the reason his vote went to Ms. Gálvez, Mr. Ortiz mentioned, in addition to to Santiago Taboada Cortina, the opposition’s candidate for mayor of Mexico Metropolis.
Irregularities marred the voting in some components of the nation. In Tlapanalá, a city in Puebla state, armed males entered a polling place in a faculty and stole a number of hundred ballots. “They threatened to shoot the officers in the event that they did something,” Delia Pale Tepetla, an area electoral official, advised reporters.
The governor of Querétaro state, Mauricio Kuri, confirmed not less than 4 reported incidents. In two of these instances, unknown suspects tried to set polling locations on hearth — however have been stopped, or folks managed to quell the flames. Confirmed reviews of poll theft additionally emerged in different states like Michoacán.
Whoever succeeds Mr. López Obrador will face daunting challenges.
Cartel violence continues to torment the nation, displacing folks en masse and fueling one of many deadliest marketing campaign cycles in current Mexican historical past. Throughout his tenure, Mr. López Obrador has directed authorities consideration to addressing the drivers of violence as a substitute of waging conflict on the prison teams, a technique he referred to as “hugs not bullets.”
Ms. Gálvez slammed that method.
“Sufficient of hugs for the criminals, and bullets for residents,” she quipped on the marketing campaign path. She mentioned she would pull the armed forces out of civilian actions and direct them to concentrate on combating organized crime, and in addition strengthen the police.
Ms. Sheinbaum mentioned that she would proceed to concentrate on the social causes of violence, however that she would deal with the issue of impunity and construct up the Nationwide Guard.
On the economic system, the alternatives are clear: Mexico is now the biggest buying and selling accomplice of the USA, benefiting from a current shift in manufacturing away from China. The forex is so robust it has been labeled the “tremendous peso.”
However there are additionally issues simmering. The federal deficit ballooned to round 6 p.c this 12 months, and Pemex, the nationwide oil firm, is working below a mountain of debt, straining public funds.
“The fiscal threat we’re dealing with in the intervening time is one thing we haven’t seen for many years,” mentioned Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, a public coverage analysis group.
One other problem entails the broad new powers granted to the armed forces, which have been tasked with operating ports and airports, operating an airline and constructing a railroad by the Mayan jungle. Ms. Sheinbaum has mentioned “there isn’t any militarization” of the nation, whereas suggesting that she’s open to re-evaluating the navy’s involvement in public enterprises.
Along with the home challenges, the subsequent president’s future will probably be intertwined with the result of the presidential election in the USA. A re-election victory for President Biden would supply continuity, however a return of Donald J. Trump to the White Home is prone to be far much less predictable.
Mr. Trump has promised to spherical up undocumented folks on an unlimited scale and to deport them to their residence nations, a vow that might have an effect on thousands and thousands of Mexicans dwelling in the USA. And he has already threatened to slap one hundred pc tariffs on Chinese language automobiles made in Mexico.
Then there may be the festering concern of fentanyl, which, the U.S. authorities says, cartels produce in Mexico utilizing chemical substances imported from China. Mr. Trump has recommended taking navy motion to fight the commerce.
Dealing with such strain from Washington, even within the type of incendiary marketing campaign rhetoric, might show difficult to Mexico’s subsequent president.
Ms. Sheinbaum has mentioned Mexico would have “good relations” with both Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden as president, and her marketing campaign crew has mentioned it is going to proceed to work to comprise flows of migrants.
Ms. Gálvez mentioned she, too, can be snug working with each males.
When requested how she would deal with Mr. Trump, she mentioned: “I’m accustomed to coping with poisonous masculinity.”
“It appears to me that Trump, at his core, is a practical man,” she mentioned, including: “What he desires is to resolve the problems on the border and with fentanyl, and I feel we will.”
James Wagner contributed reporting from Tepetitán, Mexico.
