Former President Donald J. Trump’s penchant for amplifying simply debunked conspiracy theories is well-known. However an in depth evaluation of his posts and reposts on Reality Social reveals a candidate who promotes these sinister theories at a scale and frequency properly past his already notorious playbook.
The New York Occasions’s examination of Mr. Trump’s exercise on Reality Social exhibits that, typically a number of instances a day, the previous president is concocting or selling darkish, paranoid materials and pushing it out to his hundreds of thousands of followers. Mr. Trump is so hungry for this content material that he seems to be prepared to share outlandish data from anybody, together with each well-known conspiracists and nameless accounts that tag him.
The Occasions analyzed 1000’s of Mr. Trump’s posts and reposts over a six-month interval in 2024 and located that at the least 330 of them met two tightly outlined and hanging standards: They every described each a false, secretive plot in opposition to Mr. Trump or the American folks and a particular entity supposedly liable for it. The unfounded theories ranged from ideas that the F.B.I. had ordered his assassination to accusations that authorities officers had orchestrated the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.
About 75 % of the conspiracy-theory posts got here instantly from Mr. Trump’s account. The remaining Mr. Trump reposted from different social media accounts. The Occasions additionally analyzed tons of extra of his posts and reposts that didn’t strictly meet each standards however nonetheless invoked the theories with slogans and delicate references.
Along with the posts themselves, the evaluation zeroed in on the 170 Reality Social accounts that Mr. Trump had amplified on the platform. Some are ones he follows; others have simply come throughout his radar. The overwhelming majority of the accounts commonly promoted conspiracy theories, the evaluation confirmed.
The Trump marketing campaign didn’t reply to a request for remark from The Occasions.
A spokeswoman for Reality Social didn’t reply questions from The Occasions in regards to the firm’s insurance policies on conspiratorial content material and the accounts that unfold it. As an alternative, the spokeswoman criticized reporters.
Since Mr. Trump inaugurated the platform with its first submit in 2022, Reality Social has attracted the sorts of customers, and the sorts of posts, that mainstream and extra closely moderated social networks won’t have tolerated. Mr. Trump’s use of the platform is close to fixed; he averaged 30 posts a day within the six-month interval The Occasions analyzed. That frequency far surpasses his posting on some other social media community this 12 months, and exhibits how a lot Mr. Trump depends on the platform, and its customers, to bolster his conspiratorial worldview.
From July to September, Reality Social acquired a mean of about 4.7 million distinctive month-to-month guests, in accordance with the online analytics agency Similarweb. These customers are, typically, a part of a bunch whose fealty to Mr. Trump units the community aside from bigger ones like Fb or X, which have month-to-month person counts orders of magnitude larger. Whereas Reality Social is populated by many on a regular basis followers and supporters of Mr. Trump’s, there are additionally sensationalist right-wing media upstarts, Covid deniers and devotees of QAnon, a far-right conspiracy idea whose adherents suppose that satanic pedophiles management the “deep state.”
“He’s constructing a coalition of people that simply see the world in a really darkish approach,” stated Joseph Uscinski, who’s a co-author of the e-book “American Conspiracy Theories” and a professor of political science on the College of Miami. Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, he stated, isn’t meant to cater to conventional Republican values, however as a substitute appeals to these “who simply wish to see the system blown up.”
The conspiracy theories that Mr. Trump is uncovered to on Reality Social have made their approach into his marketing campaign speeches and public appearances. He has repeatedly referred, each on-line and off, to an “enemy from inside” that features Democrats and authorities officers, and urged that the navy could be wanted to deal with them. In October, Mr. Trump described the Jan. 6 riot as a day of “love” at a city corridor occasion and two days later shared a Reality Social submit that claimed the assault had been staged by the federal authorities.
To research Mr. Trump’s account, The Occasions collected all 5,641 of his Reality Social posts and reposts from March 12 to Sept. 12 utilizing pc code. Reporters additionally manually analyzed tons of of posts from every profile Mr. Trump amplified to determine whether or not these accounts had displayed a sample of propagating conspiratorial content material.
A lot of the exercise on Mr. Trump’s feed consisted of basic campaign-related fare, like movies from rallies or endorsements of different political candidates. It additionally included disinformation and hateful rhetoric about immigrants, his political opponents and different targets.
However again and again — nearly twice a day on common — Mr. Trump’s account went one step additional and promoted conspiracy theories to his 7.9 million followers.
A seize bag of false conspiracies: George Soros, the Nord Stream pipeline and a ‘rigged’ election
The Occasions’s evaluation recognized 10 distinct themes within the conspiracy theories shared by Mr. Trump. A few of the posts depicted under referred to a number of false theories.
Practically 400 further posts not depicted above used language to confer with conspiracy theories however didn’t spell out the complete idea on their very own. This included utilizing slogans and phrases {that a} believer of the speculation would perceive, however that a mean particular person won’t.
The widespread thread by means of many of the conspiracy theories is a perception that Mr. Trump is the protagonist of each second and that his political adversaries are the villains.
Consultants stated that it was notably regarding that among the theories shared on Mr. Trump’s account sought to undermine establishments the general public depends on, together with the Federal Emergency Administration Company throughout Hurricane Helene, and the establishments holding the previous president to account, just like the Justice Division.
Mr. Trump additionally — with gorgeous frequency — sowed doubt about American democracy itself.
In additional than 260 posts within the six-month interval The Occasions analyzed, Mr. Trump shared conspiracy theories that supported his often acknowledged declare that the 2024 presidential election could be fraudulent. That features saying the legal circumstances in opposition to him are Biden administration plots to intrude within the election.
Some posts falsely alleged that Democrats have been counting on undocumented immigrants to vote and sway the election. Mr. Trump additionally shared posts with references to alternative idea, a far-right false declare typically promoted by white supremacists that claims highly effective forces try to exchange Americans with immigrants.
It’s unclear whether or not Mr. Trump or one among his marketing campaign staffers wrote any particular person submit, however every one had been despatched from the previous president’s official account.
Max Learn, a senior analysis supervisor on the Institute for Strategic Dialogue who research election disinformation, stated that after months of Mr. Trump’s false assertions about election integrity, some Reality Social customers might settle for solely a Trump victory.
“Who’re you going to go to to belief election outcomes?” Mr. Learn stated. “It’s not going to be the media. It’s not going to be the professionals doing the elections. For those who’re dwelling in that actuality and getting that data on Reality Social, you’re going to belief Trump and solely Trump.”
Different conspiracy theories Mr. Trump shared included claims that the Biden administration had blown up the Nord Stream pipeline to begin a world struggle; that George Soros, a billionaire Democratic donor, was devising plots to undermine Mr. Trump (a declare that always has antisemitic undertones as a result of Mr. Soros is Jewish); and that Vice President Kamala Harris had used synthetic intelligence to pretend the dimensions of her crowds at rallies.
The posts from Mr. Trump that didn’t meet the brink of conspiracy idea on their very own, however nonetheless referred to conspiratorial viewpoints, touched on among the most harmful and chronic false claims. For instance, he has known as the folks in jail for his or her actions on Jan. 6 “hostages,” implying they’d been falsely imprisoned in a plot in opposition to him. In a type of posts, Mr. Trump shared a music that mixed his voice with a choir made up of individuals charged for his or her alleged roles within the assault on the Capitol.
In additional than a dozen situations, Mr. Trump shared posts that included identified QAnon slogans and imagery, just like the acronym “NCSWIC,” that means “Nothing can cease what’s coming,” and “Q+,” the motion’s nickname for Mr. Trump.
“He’s in a position to reference a collection of claims and characters and so forth now,” stated Brendan Nyhan, a professor of presidency at Dartmouth Faculty who research misinformation and conspiracy theories. “There’s an unimaginable conceptual equipment that has been constructed up across the varied villains that he thinks are persecuting him and his followers.”
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Not every part Mr. Trump posts to Reality Social is a conspiracy idea. However nearly each voice he amplifies at the least dabbles in them — some much more excessive than what Mr. Trump shares from their accounts.
The Occasions’s evaluation discovered that in the identical six-month interval this 12 months, Mr. Trump reposted or quote-posted messages from 170 accounts, about 85 % of which commonly promote conspiracy theories on their very own feeds.
About one-third of these 170 accounts have been run by folks or organizations that Mr. Trump is aware of in actual life, follows on Reality Social or each. They embody among the most excessive figures within the MAGA wing of the Republican Get together, lots of whom commonly go to his Mar-a-Lago resort, just like the far-right activist Laura Loomer and Michael T. Flynn, his former nationwide safety adviser.
Mr. Trump reposted a marketing campaign endorsement from Mr. Flynn that alleged that kids “can be enslaved by a corrupt, wasteful authorities of woke globalists” if he isn’t elected.
A lot of the different accounts reposted by Mr. Trump weren’t as well-known, together with 15 that had fewer than 500 followers. As a result of Reality Social permits for anonymity in its customers’ public profiles, figuring out the identities of the house owners of many of those accounts could be troublesome.
U.S. officers have stated that overseas nations have injected disinformation into dozens of social media platforms forward of the 2024 election. It was unclear if any of those accounts have been a part of that effort.
The three posts under have been all reposted by Mr. Trump, who shared materials from every of the three accounts greater than 20 instances within the six months The Occasions examined:
In some circumstances, Reality Social customers tag and reply to the previous president again and again, and he intermittently rewards them with a repost. As an illustration, Mr. Trump reposted the picture under after being tagged in a submit:
In April, “Extremely MAGA Truther” tagged Mr. Trump in a submit with a litany of conspiracy theories about Mr. Biden, together with that “he stole the election” and “offered the affect of his workplace to China for hundreds of thousands.” Mr. Trump reposted it.
“Extremely MAGA Truther” is one among at the least three dozen accounts amplified by Mr. Trump that both included a reference to QAnon in its bio or repeatedly posted messages with slogans and imagery related to the conspiracy idea.
Mr. Trump additionally posts screenshots of content material from Reality Social or different social media platforms with out linking to the unique submit, or visible content material that features watermarks of social media handles. The Occasions checked out almost 300 accounts recognized in these sorts of posts, dozens of which additionally trafficked in conspiracy theories. They embody well-known figures akin to Elon Musk, who Mr. Trump has urged would have a job in his administration if he wins.
In a single submit in August, Mr. Trump shared a picture of a submit on X that used the phrase “too large to rig,” a conspiratorial shorthand that promotes the baseless concept that the 2024 election can be honest provided that Mr. Trump wins in a landslide. The Occasions discovered that the account behind the picture had posted antisemitic content material on X, together with a submit that stated “Adolf Hitler was proper.”
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Reality Social hails itself as a “free speech haven” and publicly says it doesn’t average content material except it’s unlawful or in any other case prohibited by its phrases of service. Along with the conspiracy theories, The Occasions discovered a number of posts from social media accounts Mr. Trump amplified that included crude sexual feedback about Ms. Harris, racist disinformation about immigrants and manipulated photographs and movies used to assault his opponents.
Mr. Trump’s use of the platform continues to be fixed: He posted greater than 240 instances final week.
On Friday, Mr. Trump took to Reality Social to repeat his false claims that the 2020 election had been stolen and that he would search retribution on anybody who had been concerned as soon as elected. He stated these folks, together with attorneys, donors, election officers and “unlawful voters,” could be “sought out, caught, and prosecuted at ranges, sadly, by no means seen earlier than in our Nation.”
The submit rapidly gathered 1000’s of replies from different customers who shared further conspiracy theories and cheered on Mr. Trump’s name for retribution.
Although most of those accounts are usually not family names, at the least eight — together with one which known as former President Barack Obama “a sleeper cell terrorist” in a reply — might have seemed acquainted to Mr. Trump. He has reposted their content material earlier than.
Methodology
The New York Occasions collected 5,641 posts Mr. Trump made on Reality Social from March 12 to Sept. 12 utilizing Truthbrush, a instrument constructed by researchers on the Stanford Web Observatory, to scrape the textual content, media and metadata of Reality Social posts. The information didn’t embody any posts he might have deleted earlier than Sept. 13.
Occasions reporters then analyzed every submit to find out if it contained the hallmarks of a conspiracy idea. For a submit to satisfy the usual, it needed to point out a secret and in the end false plot in opposition to Mr. Trump, his allies or the American public and level out the folks or entities supposedly behind it. A further 388 posts that included solely one among these components or solely subtly referred to the conspiracy theories, akin to by utilizing slogans identified by their believers, have been labeled as “conspiracy idea adjoining” and weren’t included within the eventual tally of at the least 330 posts.
These posts have been then categorized into a number of of 10 widespread subjects that have been referred to within the conspiracy theories.
To grasp whom Mr. Trump was interacting with, The Occasions additionally seemed on the 170 accounts that Mr. Trump reposted or quote-posted within the time interval. Every account was categorized into a number of buckets, together with whether or not it had displayed a sample of selling conspiracy theories; whether or not its bio included references to QAnon or the account repeatedly shared QAnon content material; whether or not it was adopted by Mr. Trump or run by somebody Mr. Trump knew in actual life; and whether or not the account posted crude assaults of a sexual nature.
Mr. Trump additionally often shared movies and pictures containing watermarks by different customers and screenshots of content material from Reality Social and different platforms. To seize these accounts, The Occasions used an open-source machine studying mannequin known as Qwen-2 to extract the social media usernames seen within the photographs or within the first body of movies from the three,400 items of media in Mr. Trump’s posts and reposts. Occasions reporters then manually matched the extracted handles to the related account on the right platform.
