Because the season approaches its remaining two weeks, jostling for at-large bids continues for groups within the higher echelon of School Soccer Playoff competitors.
At this level, there are groups with CFP hopes each as a convention champion and as an at-large. There are others, corresponding to Massive 12 contenders BYU and Colorado, which have to win their convention to succeed in the Playoff. The identical situation exists for Group of 5 squads Boise State and Tulane.
For the groups strictly in at-large rivalry, what are the instances for his or her inclusion and what are the issues that would preserve them from the 12-team event? Under we study 16 groups with at-large hopes — not simply the 16 highest-ranked groups — and study why they’re worthy of at-large consideration whereas breaking down their flaws.
No. 1 Oregon (11-0)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS (power of schedule): 52; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 4-0; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 6-0; Factors for: 33.9; Factors in opposition to: 15.7.
Case for: The Geese are the nation’s solely unbeaten workforce, have ranked wins in opposition to Ohio State, Boise State and Illinois and compete in a coast-to-coast convention. At this stage, Oregon deserves the No. 1 rating with out debate.
Deadly flaw: That is extra of a priority transferring ahead. Had Ohio State quarterback Will Howard slid a second earlier and known as a timeout in opposition to Oregon, the Buckeyes might need kicked a game-winning subject objective in Eugene. The groups are more likely to meet in Indianapolis for the Massive Ten championship. Ought to Oregon fall, the Geese may face Boise State once more within the CFP, they usually received that sport on a last-second subject objective. Rematches in opposition to motivated opponents may pose challenges.
No. 2 Ohio State (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 58; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 5-1; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 5-0; Factors for: 37.8; Factors in opposition to: 10.7.
Case for: The Buckeyes have the expertise at each place to compete with any workforce within the nation. They boast two NFL-caliber working backs and the nation’s high protection. Howard has accomplished 80 % of his passes in six totally different video games, and receivers Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are an electrifying trio. On a impartial subject, this workforce may win all of it.
Deadly flaw: There are occasions the Buckeyes look bizarre, like in a 21-17 dwelling win in opposition to Nebraska. Accidents to Ohio State’s high two offensive linemen may have penalties in opposition to a bodily, athletic entrance. Howard has competed at a excessive stage this yr, however can he make the game-winning performs in an in depth contest in opposition to comparable expertise?
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No. 3 Texas (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 39; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 7-1; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 3-0; Factors for: 37.8; Factors in opposition to: 12.1.
Case for: Texas can match up with anybody player-for-player. The Longhorns have the SEC’s high scoring protection and rank second nationally in whole protection. They’ve an skilled quarterback in Quinn Ewers, elite gamers at each place and confirmed their grit by shedding just one sport up to now of their first SEC season.
Deadly flaw: The Longhorns don’t personal a victory over a present High 25 workforce. They prevented Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee and South Carolina they usually misplaced decisively to Georgia. That doesn’t take away their intent; the Longhorns traveled to defending nationwide champion Michigan and received 31-19. However questions persist about how Texas will carry out in opposition to fellow elite applications as a result of they haven’t confronted a couple of coming into this week’s showdown in opposition to Texas A&M.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 37; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 6-1; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 32.4; Factors in opposition to: 14.6.
Case for: The Nittany Lions have dealt with their enterprise in high-quality vogue. They survived at powerful street venues like USC, Minnesota, Wisconsin and West Virginia with large performs in vital moments. Penn State has an underrated quarterback in Drew Allar, the nation’s greatest tight finish in Tyler Warren and a top-five NFL Draft decide in edge rusher Abdul Carter. The Nittany Lions can adapt to totally different types and climate received’t be an element.
Deadly flaw: There are two large questions going through Penn State. One, can their large receivers achieve sufficient separation in opposition to an equally proficient opponent? Two, can coach James Franklin string collectively a number of wins in opposition to top-10 competitors? In Franklin’s 11 years, the Nittany Lions are 3-17 in opposition to top-10 opponents with just one victory within the final eight seasons.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 65; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 6-1; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 39.0; Factors in opposition to: 11.6.
Case for: Few, if any, groups have appeared extra spectacular than Notre Dame within the final two months. Solely as soon as have the Irish allowed greater than 16 factors in a sport, they usually’ve scored at the very least 31 factors in every of their final seven video games. Quarterback Riley Leonard has change into an elite playmaker and Notre Dame’s line of scrimmage play can cling with any opponent.
Deadly flaw: The Irish have ranked wins in opposition to Texas A&M and Military away from dwelling, however their general schedule was mild. Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois has served as a lightning rod for criticism. For the Irish the situation is easy: beat USC and decide up a house CFP sport. Lose to the Trojans and possibly fall from CFP consideration.
No. 6 Miami (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 61; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 5-1; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 44.7; Factors in opposition to: 22.3.
Case for: The Hurricanes common extra factors than any workforce in CFP rivalry. With quarterback Cam Ward, Miami can fill it up. In 5 totally different video games, the Hurricanes have scored at the very least 50 factors.
Deadly flaw: No at-large contender permits extra factors per sport than Miami at 22.3. The Hurricanes ceaselessly have been concerned in one-score video games in opposition to unranked opponents and have wanted late rallies to win. Miami has but to play a High 25 workforce, not to mention beat one.
Miami will end the common season on the street in opposition to Syracuse on Saturday. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Pictures)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 4; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 4-2; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 33.2; Factors in opposition to: 14.6.
Case for: No person has extra high quality wins than Georgia, which beat CFP contenders Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. When working at a excessive stage, the Bulldogs appear like an eventual champion. They’ve a veteran quarterback and expertise that jumps off the roster. Regardless of a loss at Alabama, their livid comeback try will scare any future opponent.
Deadly flaw: Which model of Carson Beck will take the sector within the CFP? He’s thrown 12 interceptions and three picks in three totally different video games, together with in a loss to Alabama and a win in opposition to Texas. In a sport between equally matched opponents, how Beck performs may improve – or hurt – Georgia’s efficiency.
No. 8 Tennessee (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 57; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 3-2; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 5-0; Factors for: 37.4; Factors in opposition to: 13.1.
Case for: The Vols can play any type of soccer and compete. They rank second within the SEC in each factors scored and factors allowed. Operating again Dylan Sampson is among the nation’s three greatest working backs and sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava shows some dynamic qualities.
Deadly flaw: Exterior of beating Alabama, the Vols have an bizarre resume. None of their nonconference opponents are bowl eligible, they usually misplaced to 6-5 Arkansas in Fayetteville. It’s why Tennessee hovered outdoors the CFP earlier than Ole Miss and Alabama suffered losses final weekend.
No. 9 SMU (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 59; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 5-1; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 39.3; Factors in opposition to: 21.0.
Case for: SMU’s ACC debut has been flawless with nary a loss regardless of a lowered income share. The Mustangs are one victory shy of working the desk and advancing to the ACC title sport. All-everything working again Brashard Smith was vital in wins in opposition to Duke and Pittsburgh.
Deadly flaw: An early loss to BYU lingers however not in the best way most individuals anticipated again in September. With SEC groups slipping after their third loss, heightened scrutiny awaits SMU this weekend in opposition to Cal and in a possible ACC title sport. It’s value watching SMU’s protection, which has allowed at the very least 25 factors to each bowl-eligible opponent since its BYU loss.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 68; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 3-1; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 6-0; Factors for: 41.3; Factors in opposition to: 16.0.
Case for: The attention check and statistics favor Indiana. The Hoosiers have an electrifying offense led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke and 5 receivers with at the very least 24 catches, 280 yards and three touchdowns. Indiana additionally performs high-level protection, which is uncommon for a portal-based workforce.
Deadly flaw: As of right this moment, Indiana has overwhelmed three FBS groups with successful data however that would fall to zero by Saturday. Its power of schedule is by far the bottom of any energy convention workforce vying for an at-large bid. Within the Hoosiers’ solely sport in opposition to a ranked opponent, they misplaced 38-15 to Ohio State.
No. 12 Clemson (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 62; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 1-2; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 7-0; Factors for: 37.6; Factors in opposition to: 22.0.
Case for: In all however one in every of its victories, Clemson received by double figures. It has a potent offense guided by quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has 29 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The Tigers are third within the ACC in each scoring offense and scoring protection.
Deadly flaw: Clemson has essentially the most pedestrian resume of any potential at-large squad. It has performed simply three FBS groups with successful data and received simply as soon as, and that was final week in opposition to 7-4 Pittsburgh. The Tigers surrender practically 23 factors a sport, the second-most of any workforce within the CFP High 25.
No. 13 Alabama (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 7; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 6-3; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 1-0; Factors for: 36.2; Factors in opposition to: 17.5.
Case for: Within the first half in opposition to Georgia or all through its victories in opposition to LSU and Missouri, Alabama appeared like not solely a CFP workforce however a title contender. 9 of its 11 FBS opponents have successful data, together with seven of eight SEC opponents.
Deadly flaw: It actually begins and ends with the win-loss file. Shedding three video games would finish CFP hopes for practically each different program save for Alabama. The Tide dropped video games to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, each of that are 6-5. It’s not unimaginable to construct a case for Alabama’s inclusion, however it includes losses by a number of groups this weekend slightly than for the Tide to easily beat Auburn.
No. 14 Ole Miss (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 31; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 5-2; Report vs. FBS non-winning groups: 2-1; Factors for: 38.5; Factors in opposition to: 13.9.
Case for: Simply watch the Rebels in motion. It’s a potent offense led by Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris, able to placing up factors on everybody. Ole Miss crushed Georgia 28-10 and scored 63 factors on Arkansas, which held Tennessee to 14. The protection has NFL-caliber performers, particularly alongside the road.
Deadly flaw: Not solely do Mississippi’s three losses make it troublesome to climb into the CFP, however it’s additionally who beat the Rebels. Not one of the three groups are ranked by the committee with LSU (7-4) posting the very best file. Shedding at dwelling to Kentucky (4-7) might be the kill shot.
Ole Miss’ loss to Florida final week dropped the Rebels’ Playoff probabilities to 9 %, per The Athletic’s mannequin. (Matt Pendleton / Imagn Pictures)
No. 15 South Carolina (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 18; Report vs. FBS successful groups: 4-3; Report vs. non-winning FBS groups: 3-0; Factors for: 32.9; Factors in opposition to: 18.2.
Case for: Of the 8-3 groups hovering within the SEC’s second tier, the Gamecocks received the necessary head-to-head battles in opposition to Texas A&M and Missouri. South Carolina has one in every of school soccer’s most dominant defensive strains with 39 sacks. Its offensive effectivity is spectacular.
Deadly flaw: That is the season of “almosts” for South Carolina. Two touchdowns have been known as again in opposition to LSU due to penalties and a failed two-point conversion price the Gamecocks an time beyond regulation alternative in opposition to Alabama. Barring a chaotic situation rivaling 2007, South Carolina “nearly” will get into the CFP.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 33; Report vs. successful groups: 3-1; Report vs. non-winning groups: 6-1; Factors for: 30.5; Factors in opposition to: 22.8.
Case for: Arizona State has posted its two most spectacular wins within the final two weeks, beating Kansas State 24-14 on the street earlier than toppling BYU 28-23 at dwelling. The Solar Devils, who’re led by versatile working again Cam Skattebo, have churned out 5 wins by a landing or much less.
Deadly flaw: The Solar Devils have a 7.7-point differential, which is by far the bottom of any potential at-large workforce. Their losses got here in opposition to 7-4 Texas Tech and 5-6 Cincinnati, they usually’ve performed solely 4 groups with successful data.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 40; Report vs. successful groups: 4-1; Report vs. non-winning groups: 4-1; Factors for: 31.4; Factors in opposition to: 19.5.
Case for: The Cyclones are resilient, as demonstrated by three come-from-behind victories within the closing seconds. Iowa State has the Massive 12’s greatest go protection, which ranks third general. Their receiving mixture of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel has compiled practically 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Deadly flaw: Iowa State steadily climbed the rankings till shedding two straight to Texas Tech and Kansas (5-6). The Cyclones don’t personal any High 25 wins, and their depleted protection has given up greater than 230 dashing yards in three of their final 5 video games.
(High picture: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Pictures))
