The Detroit Lions have by no means gained 10 or extra video games in consecutive seasons. Will that change this yr?
Can something hold the two-time defending Kansas Metropolis Chiefs from nabbing the AFC’s high seed? Will Jayden Daniels’ arrival raise the Washington Commanders? May Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos or Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers land among the many league’s backside feeders?
Let’s go to our specialists to reply these questions, with the assistance of analytics and our eyes on the beat.
After working 10,000 simulations of the 2024 season, Austin Mock’s NFL betting mannequin has calculated an anticipated win whole for each staff, from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4 wins) to the Washington Commanders (5.9). (You’ll be able to see the AFC groups right here and the NFC right here.) Now, our beat writers are right here to reply: Is the mannequin too excessive, too low or simply proper relating to the staff you cowl?
San Francisco 49ers
Win whole: 11.4
This feels excellent. The 49ers gained 13 video games in 2022 and 12 video games in 2023. Issue within the exhaustion from repeated postseason runs (the 49ers have performed 60 video games over the previous three seasons), and one other decline in win whole this season would make sense. However the Niners, assuming there’s a decision to the contractual conditions involving Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, may’ve really upgraded their roster this offseason. Seven members of their 2024 draft class made the 53-man roster, together with a starter at what had been the offense’s weakest place, proper guard. And quarterback Brock Purdy is predicted to enhance with expertise. The 49ers’ protection, coming off a down yr, has seen a expertise overhaul, which might assist them keep within the 11- to 12-win vary. — David Lombardi
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Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Win whole: 11.3
Projecting the Chiefs to have the perfect file within the AFC is logical. However they may have greater than 11 victories, particularly in the event that they sweep their two-game house sequence to begin the season in opposition to the Ravens and the Bengals. The Chiefs are clearly favored to win their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the division, and the Chiefs have arguably the league’s finest kicker in Harrison Butker, who often offers them a vital benefit in tight video games. The largest concern is that if their protection slides again within the rankings with L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Homosexual and Mike Edwards now not on the roster. — Nate Taylor
Detroit Lions
Win whole: 10.5
The case for the Lions exceeding 10.5 wins is that they gained 12 video games a yr in the past with a younger roster and apparent holes. This offseason, they bolstered their secondary, added D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport alongside the line of defense and count on their younger gamers to take a step ahead. On the similar time, although, the Lions face a first-place schedule, and the division is more durable on paper. There’s a world wherein the staff is extra full general however wins fewer video games. However I’ve the Lions at 12 wins once more, so it’s a contact low, for my part. — Colton Pouncy
Baltimore Ravens
Win whole: 10.2
If you happen to might assure Lamar Jackson will play 15 video games or extra, I’d say 10.2 wins is a bit low, merely due to how good Baltimore has been within the common season with a wholesome Jackson. Nevertheless, you possibly can’t do this, so 10.2 appears to be like excellent to me. The Ravens have a stable and deep staff, however they play a very robust schedule they usually have official questions in two key areas: offensive line and edge rush. These components must be thought-about. — Jeff Zrebiec
Cincinnati Bengals
Win whole: 10.2
The Bengals had a totally wholesome Joe Burrow for simply five-and-a-half video games final yr. Their protection appeared nothing like its earlier self with out Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They performed one of many hardest schedules within the league. Little or no went proper. They nonetheless gained 9 video games. A projection of 10.2 is stable, however I’d be extra snug going over than below. They’ve questions, little question, however they added veteran safeties, the schedule seems dramatically simpler, the offensive line is as stable as Burrow has performed behind. So long as Burrow is wholesome (all indicators are good) with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins outdoors, 10 wins looks like the ground. — Paul Dehner Jr.
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Win whole: 10.2
Mock writes, “Finally, this division comes right down to how effectively Eagles QB Jalen Hurts performs.” I agree. And that’s why I nonetheless really feel snug about my 12-5 prediction from the spring. Hurts was noticeably extra polished in coaching camp. He was decisive, efficient and harmful on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive expertise might produce, on the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this technique correctly. Proprietor Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated persistence together with his head coaches as long as there’s confidence in a aggressive path ahead. Nevertheless it’s price questioning whether or not a 10-win season could be thought-about a regression below Nick Sirianni. — Brooks Kubena
Win whole: 10.0
Regardless of Dallas’ three consecutive 12-win seasons, the mannequin’s 10-win projection is true on line with what most would count on from the Cowboys. After successful the NFC East, the Cowboys have a troublesome first-place schedule, which incorporates video games in opposition to the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Eagles (twice), Texans and Bengals. If they continue to be principally wholesome in all the key spots, anyplace between 9 wins and 12 wins looks as if a good projection. — Saad Yousuf
Win whole: 9.8
Mock has the Packers’ win whole because the fifth-highest within the NFC. I feel the Packers will win 10 or 11 video games, so it’s nearly proper and, if something, a tick low. Jordan Love and firm gained’t want the primary half of the season to work out the kinks of unfamiliarity, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley appears to have his unit firing on all cylinders. The largest query marks are offensive line depth, the kicker place and youth within the secondary. Shore up at the very least two of these three and the Packers will likely be a official title contender. — Matt Schneidman
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Win whole: 9.7
This appears nearly proper. A staff led by Josh Allen in his prime ought to all the time be taken significantly. I’m positive, even with a number of questions in regards to the Payments in 2024, Allen is why they’ve the AFC’s fourth-highest win whole. However the questions are official. The protection might take an actual step again as a result of cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term damage to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a brand new offense with out wideout Stefon Diggs or heart Mitch Morse. The Payments might wrestle with a troublesome early schedule, however don’t rule out a second-half surge as soon as all the brand new items jell simply in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia
Even with Aaron Rodgers’ wholesome return to the Jets, Josh Allen’s staff nonetheless has a slight edge on its division rival. (Sarah Stier / Getty Photos)
Win whole: 9.6
It’s onerous to argue with this projection — and engaging how tightly the AFC East groups are grouped. The Jets clearly have essentially the most gifted roster of the three from high to backside, and if Aaron Rodgers can keep wholesome, there’s no purpose they need to fall in need of 10 wins. That they had a top-five protection in every of the final two seasons, and the unit continues to be principally intact (and might be even higher if/when Haason Reddick lastly experiences). The offense needs to be vastly improved. Rodgers is clearly a serious improve over Zach Wilson and final yr’s rotation of backups, Breece Corridor is absolutely wholesome, Garrett Wilson is able to escape and GM Joe Douglas did a very good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt
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Win whole: 9.5
This matches the over/below from BetMGM, so the specialists are aligned right here. Nevertheless, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light-weight schedule to begin the marketing campaign, I lean towards the over right here. I count on coach Mike McDaniel to subject one other offensive juggernaut whereas unleashing some new wrinkles that almost all defenses gained’t have the ability to deal with. I’m involved about Miami’s line of defense with out Christian Wilkins but in addition love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I feel Miami will get off to a different scorching begin however should battle to get to 10 wins in opposition to what appears to be like like a really robust closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello
Win whole: 9.4
If the Falcons don’t win at the very least 10 video games, they’ll be upset, and they need to be. They stated they had been able to compete “on the highest stage” after they fired Arthur Smith. They assured Kirk Cousins $100 million. They traded for Matthew Judon and signed Justin Simmons. Eighty-one-year-old proprietor Arthur Clean is pushing all his chips in and making an costly guess that this staff is healthier than 9.4 wins. — Josh Kendall
Houston Texans
Win whole: 9.0
The Texans had been a shock success story final season, going 10-7 and successful the AFC South. Mock initiatives them for 9 wins this season, however I feel they may once more surpass that. C.J. Stroud has a season of expertise below his belt. Bobby Slowik did effectively as a first-time play caller however will possible discover methods to get much more out of Stroud this season, given the extra weapons (together with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon) acquired this offseason. Including go rusher Danielle Hunter in free company ought to assist each Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans’ protection as an entire. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has a very good shot at one other 10-win season and a return to the playoffs. — Mike Jones
Win whole: 8.9
9 wins feels about proper for the Chargers. I had them at 10 in my prediction in Might. Contemplate the additional recreation the Jim Harbaugh bump. The gamers are purchased in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego College, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I consider he can have the identical influence in Los Angeles. And, after all, the Chargers nonetheless have the most effective quarterbacks in soccer in Justin Herbert, who appeared nice in follow final week after coming back from his plantar fascia damage. — Daniel Popper
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Win whole: 8.8
This feels just a little low for a staff that exceeded expectations in 2023 and added extra sources to each side of the ball. Accidents will likely be a significant component early, with the Rams returning a number of key gamers from absence: Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Puka Nacua (knee) and Darious Williams (hamstring). They need to get beginning proper sort out Rob Havenstein (ankle) again both in Week 1 or by Week 3. Beginning left sort out Alaric Jackson (ankle, suspension) will likely be again in Week 3. No, there’s no Aaron Donald — however a depleted Rams staff gained 10 video games final season. They may go as quarterback Matthew Stafford goes. — Jourdan Rodrigue
Cleveland Browns
Win whole: 8.7
The Browns have a a lot larger ceiling than 8.7 wins, and internally, they’d say the roster is healthier than final yr’s model that went 11-5 regardless of having to play 5 completely different quarterbacks. However only one quarterback issues within the current and future, and Deshaun Watson simply had an unimpressive coaching camp whereas coming off of shoulder surgical procedure. He hasn’t performed a stay snap in virtually 10 months and has performed 12 video games within the final three years. The Browns have numerous expertise, however can they depend on Watson? I’d say eight or 9 wins feels proper. — Zac Jackson
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Win whole: 8.2
The Saints entered final yr as a no brainer favourite to win the NFC South with one of many league’s best schedules. They solely gained 9 video games and missed the playoffs. Their schedule doesn’t appear a lot more durable this season, however the NFC South improved round them and New Orleans didn’t develop sufficient alongside the roster this offseason. These are official causes as to why the Saints aren’t the favorites in a nonetheless seemingly weak division. So an 8.2-win projection feels truthful. These projections additionally point out the Saints would miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, which might possible imply a brand new coach and new quarterback for the 2025 marketing campaign. — Larry Holder
Win whole: 8.2
Seattle went 9-8 due to slim Week 18 victories in every of Pete Carroll’s closing two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited a lot of the identical roster, so even when his new teaching employees is healthier, this projection feels correct. The NFC West is a troublesome division, and Seattle has official questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there may naturally be some rising pains alongside the best way with a completely new teaching employees led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
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Win whole: 8.1
The Bears path the Lions (10.5) and Packers (9.8), however a nine- or 10-win season doesn’t really feel like a attain, both. The Bears beat the division-winning Lions final yr — and coach Matt Eberflus’ protection needs to be higher this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams can have his rookie moments, however he’s surrounded by expertise with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and working again D’Andre Swift. They’ll all assist with Williams’ rising pains. — Adam Jahns
Win whole: 8.1
I feel it is a 10-win staff. And if the Jaguars play nearer to the model that went 15-5 from late 2022 to early 2023, they may have 12-win potential. In fact, quite a bit should go proper for that to materialize. My largest concern is the Jags begin on the Dolphins, return house for the Browns, then go to the Payments and Texans. In the event that they aren’t on level and fall to 0-4, there’s no telling what that would do to their confidence. However barring a disaster of that magnitude, they’ve acquired sufficient winnable video games over the ultimate three months of the season to exceed the projected 8.1 wins. — Jeff Howe
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win whole: 7.6
Mike Tomlin has been the mannequin of consistency, by no means ending with a shedding file in 17 seasons as coach. The largest risk to that streak is without doubt one of the NFL’s most difficult schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s best division. The backstretch is brutal, with three video games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas Metropolis — in 10 days in December. Nonetheless, it will be onerous to guess in opposition to Tomlin’s historical past, making the 7.6 win projection just a little low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith ought to assist. If Tomlin can get to .500 or higher with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he ought to have the ability to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo
Win whole: 7.5
The Colts gained 9 video games final yr primarily with backup QB Gardner Minshew on the helm. Their schedule is more durable this season, however the perception internally is {that a} wholesome Anthony Richardson can elevate the whole staff. I agree that Richardon’s dual-threat skills make him able to main Indianapolis to extra wins than Mock’s projected 7.5, although the inexperienced secondary might be a giant weak point. Assuming the again finish doesn’t fully collapse, I’ll pencil the Colts in for 10 wins and their first playoff berth since 2020. — James Boyd
The Colts have their sights set excessive with Anthony Richardson again and wholesome. (Justin Casterline / Getty Photos)
Win whole: 7.5
Inner expectations and fan expectations are a lot higher than this. Based on Mock’s mannequin, the Bucs are eleventh within the NFC and third within the NFC South behind the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs gained 9 final yr, and the final notion is that they improved within the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether or not they enhance or slide may rely largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout yr in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has changed Dave Canales. — Dan Pompei
Win whole: 7.3
The quarterback choice of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t transfer the needle a lot, so it’s no shock that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, simply clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The protection needs to be superb, Davante Adams continues to be the most effective offensive gamers within the league, and first-round choose Brock Bowers ought to have a big effect at tight finish. Issues might come up if there are any accidents, because the Raiders are usually not deep and new normal supervisor Tom Telesco is taking the lengthy view with salary-cap area. And if the Raiders get off to a gradual begin, Adams may name for a commerce, so … 7.3 sounds good, however there may be some shaky floor. — Vic Tafur
Win whole: 7.1
Native optimism is excessive. And it needs to be. Kyler Murray is wholesome. The expertise round him is healthier. The Cardinals are trending in the fitting route. However coming off a four-win first season below coach Jonathan Gannon, 7.1 wins in 12 months 2 sounds proper. GM Monti Ossenfort inherited a big rebuilding job, and the worst factor he might’ve completed was attempt to do an excessive amount of too quickly. That is the subsequent step. Maximize Murray. Enhance defensively. Develop depth. Discover ways to win. Reversals can occur rapidly, however for the Cardinals, there are not any shortcuts. — Doug Haller
Win whole: 6.8
There are days when Mock’s projection feels low — and different days when it feels excessive. Is it underrating Brian Flores’ protection? Is it precisely assessing quarterback Sam Darnold? Perhaps sure, perhaps no. If you happen to suppose it’s too excessive, it’s in all probability due to the schedule. The Vikings open with the Giants, then face a gauntlet: 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams. These six groups have unbelievable expertise and high-end teaching. If you happen to see 6.8 wins as too low, you might be in all probability Darnold’s state of affairs alongside Justin Jefferson and head coach Kevin O’Connell and pondering an explosive offense is in retailer. Each viewpoints make sense. Anybody who thinks they know the way it’ll play out is overconfident. — Alec Lewis
Win whole: 6.8
That is on the low aspect of the Titans’ vary, however six or seven wins is definitely potential, particularly with the robust NFC North on the schedule. It is a very troublesome staff to undertaking contemplating the adjustments and unknowns. A primary-time head coach (Brian Callahan) with first-time coordinators (Nick Holz, Dennard Wilson) will rely closely on draft picks plugged into key roles instantly (left sort out JC Latham, defensive sort out T’Vondre Sweat), and hope key veteran acquisitions (L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Chidobe Awuzie, Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs) have best-case seasons. Oh, and the Titans hope they’ve a franchise quarterback in Will Levis. They only don’t know but. — Joe Rexrode
Win whole: 6.7
It’s wild to say a few staff with a projection of solely 6.7 wins, however this appears too excessive. The Patriots went 4-13 a yr in the past, parted with the best coach of all time and introduced again a remarkably related roster to final season. Drake Maye gained’t be beginning at quarterback, the large receiver and offensive line teams each rank among the many league’s worst, and the protection acquired worse in latest weeks after shedding its high two go rushers (Christian Barmore was recognized with blood clots and is out indefinitely, whereas Matthew Judon was traded to the Falcons). — Chad Graff
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New York Giants
Win whole: 6.7
That is proper heading in the right direction. The Giants gained six video games final yr and, sure, there was a Murphy’s Regulation component concerned with so many accidents to high gamers. Nevertheless it’s not so simple as anticipating enchancment if the staff manages to remain more healthy. First, quarterback Daniel Jones has a prolonged damage historical past, so well being isn’t a given. Moreover, the Giants are with out some high gamers from final season’s roster (Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, Leonard Williams). They traded for Brian Burns and drafted Malik Nabers within the first spherical with the expectation they’ll be game-changers on each side of the ball. However there are sufficient query marks with the roster to mood expectations. — Dan Duggan
Win whole: 6.4
The mannequin was not type to the Panthers, who sit forward of solely Denver (6.0) and Washington (5.9). Nevertheless it feels about proper, contemplating I picked the Panthers to go 6-11 when schedules had been launched in Might. It’s cheap to suppose Bryce Younger will take a step ahead in a brand new offensive system and with improved blockers and playmakers. However with sizable holes at cornerback and edge rusher, the protection might take a step again. — Joseph Particular person
Denver Broncos
Win whole: 6.0
That is too low. In 16 seasons as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton has by no means gained fewer than seven video games. The Broncos went 8-9 final season, then jettisoned a handful of veterans like Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy. However Wilson’s substitute at quarterback, Bo Nix, appears to be like extra able to run Payton’s offense than I initially anticipated. A personnel overhaul within the entrance seven will make the Broncos higher in opposition to the run. Many gamers are in 12 months 2 of their schemes, and it’s been simple to see the influence of that continuity in coaching camp. It’s truthful to promote the Broncos as a playoff staff, however seven wins looks like the ground to me. — Nick Kosmider
Washington Commanders
Win whole: 5.9
The broad oddsmakers set the win whole at 6.5, a quantity that many Jayden Daniels believers discover shockingly low. Mock’s mannequin went even decrease with a league-worst 5.9 wins. What the projections can not simply take into account is the Commanders’ renewed aggressive spirit below coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and extra weekly consistency ought to push Washington above Mock’s quantity, nevertheless it may take damage and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to succeed in seven wins or sniff .500. — Ben Standig
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photographs: Ryan Kang, Perry Knotts, Jaiden Tripi / Getty Photos)
